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| #377393 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:37 PM 19.Sep.2010) TCDAT1 HURRICANE IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 48 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010 1100 PM AST SUN SEP 19 2010 THE LAST OBSERVATIONS FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SHOWED THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS SLOWLY RISING AND MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS HAD DECREASED TO 68 KT. THERE WERE A FEW SFMR-OBSERVED SURFACE WINDS OF 65 TO 69 KT ABOUT 90 N MI TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER BUT MOST OF THESE WERE FLAGGED AS QUESTIONABLE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 65 KT...WHICH IS REMARKABLY LOW FOR THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 955 MB. NOT MUCH ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. BY 36 HOURS...THE GFS SHOWS WELL-DEFINED THERMAL ADVECTION WITHIN THE CIRCULATION AND THEREFORE IGOR IS LIKELY TO HAVE BEEN TRANSFORMED INTO A VIGOROUS EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AROUND THAT TIME. THE LATEST CENTER FIXES INDICATE THAT THE TRACK IS BEGINNING TO BEND TO THE RIGHT AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 015/12. NOT MUCH CHANGE IS MADE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. IGOR IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD ON MONDAY AND ACCELERATE AHEAD OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...POST-TROPICAL IGOR IS LIKELY TO TURN BACK TO THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHWEST AS IT INTERACTS WITH ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AT HIGH LATITUDES. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 64 KT WITH GUSTS TO 81 KT WERE REPORTED AT BERMUDA DURING THE PAST HOUR. SINCE IGOR HAS A VERY LARGE CIRCULATION...SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON THE ISLAND WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/0300Z 32.4N 65.5W 65 KT 12HR VT 20/1200Z 34.6N 64.4W 65 KT 24HR VT 21/0000Z 38.1N 60.9W 65 KT 36HR VT 21/1200Z 42.5N 55.5W 70 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48HR VT 22/0000Z 46.5N 49.0W 70 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72HR VT 23/0000Z 49.5N 38.0W 50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96HR VT 24/0000Z 58.0N 37.0W 40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120HR VT 25/0000Z 62.0N 42.0W 30 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
