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| #377650 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:41 PM 20.Sep.2010) TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142010 1100 PM EDT MON SEP 20 2010 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 450 N MI WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...THE FOURTEENTH OF THE 2010 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 35 KT AND 30 KT...RESPECTIVELY. BASED ON THESE ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT. DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND THE DEPRESSION IS NEARING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/5...BASED MAINLY ON SATELLITE FIXES. THE DEPRESSION IS CAUGHT IN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS TO THE SOUTH OF A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. A GENERAL SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN THE WEAK FLOW. A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS PROBABLE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND FLATTENS...ALLOWING FOR SOME MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO BUILD NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. ANOTHER TROUGH...HOWEVER...IS EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE SYSTEM BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND WILL LIKELY INDUCE A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION BY THAT TIME. THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS OF LOWER CONFIDENCE THAN NORMAL. MOST OF THE INTENSITY MODELS SHOW SOME STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER MARGINALLY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND IN A LOW WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...BUT JUST SOUTH OF STRONG WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. WESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM COULD INCREASE IN 4 OR 5 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SECOND TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS AND SHOWS GRADUAL STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOLLOWED BY LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH THEREAFTER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/0300Z 17.1N 31.9W 30 KT 12HR VT 21/1200Z 17.5N 31.7W 35 KT 24HR VT 22/0000Z 18.0N 31.6W 40 KT 36HR VT 22/1200Z 18.4N 31.8W 40 KT 48HR VT 23/0000Z 18.9N 32.4W 45 KT 72HR VT 24/0000Z 20.1N 34.4W 50 KT 96HR VT 25/0000Z 22.0N 35.5W 55 KT 120HR VT 26/0000Z 23.5N 35.5W 55 KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI |
