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| #378253 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:53 PM 23.Sep.2010) TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142010 1100 AM AST THU SEP 23 2010 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED AND BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED NEAR THE CENTER OF LISA. A 23/0907Z SSMIS MICROWAVE OVERPASS INDICATED A WELL-DEFINED CURVED BAND OF CONVECTION HAD FORMED AND WRAPPED BETTER THAN HALF WAY AROUND THE NORTH AND WEST SIDE OF THE CENTER. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T2.0/30 KT FROM TAFB...T1.5/25 FROM SAB. UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE REMAIN WELL ABOVE THE SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT T3.3/51 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY WILL BE HELD AT 30 KT...WHICH COULD BE A LITTLE LOW GIVEN THE RECENT UPWARD TREND NOTED IN THE VARIOUS SATELLITE DATA. LISA HAS BEEN DRIFTING EASTWARD...BUT A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION OF 360/02 IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITHIN THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE ELONGATED MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN NUDGING LISA EASTWARD THE PAST FEW DAYS IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF SLOWLY LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE TO FILL IN AND BEGIN TO STEER LISA TO THE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWESTWARD. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH THIS DEVELOPING SCENARIO AND SHOWS LESS SPREAD THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THE NHC FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS OF ADVISORY TRACK...BUT REMAINS ALONG THE EXTREME LEFT SIDE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. NOW THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED SOUTHWESTERLY ARE MOVING AWAY FROM LISA...THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN HAS IMPROVED. HOWEVER...THE NEARBY PRESENCE OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR REMAINS PROBLEMATIC IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST PROCESS. THE LOWEST SHEAR AND BEST MOISTURE PROFILES FOR INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT LISA DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. AFTER THAT...DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR...COOLER SSTS...AND INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR AHEAD OF ANOTHER MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO INDUCE A STEADY WEAKENING TREND. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND A BLEND OF NHC INTENSITY MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/1500Z 17.5N 28.9W 30 KT 12HR VT 24/0000Z 18.4N 29.2W 35 KT 24HR VT 24/1200Z 19.2N 29.6W 35 KT 36HR VT 25/0000Z 20.0N 30.3W 40 KT 48HR VT 25/1200Z 20.8N 31.0W 40 KT 72HR VT 26/1200Z 22.0N 32.2W 40 KT 96HR VT 27/1200Z 24.2N 35.0W 35 KT 120HR VT 28/1200Z 26.5N 37.5W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER STEWART |
