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| #378286 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:41 PM 23.Sep.2010) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142010 500 PM AST THU SEP 23 2010 MICROWAVE DATA A FEW HOURS AGO GAVE US A HINT THAT LISA WAS BECOMING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...AND NOW CONVENTIONAL IMAGES SHOW MORE SYMMETRIC CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER WITH FAIR OUTFLOW. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB INCREASED TO 2.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. BASED ON THESE ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 35 KNOTS AND LISA HAS ONCE AGAIN REACHED TROPICAL STORM STATUS. THERE IS A SMALL OPPORTUNITY OF 24 TO 36 HOURS FOR LISA TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE BEFORE THE SHEAR INCREASES. A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED THEREAFTER. LISA HAS BEEN MEANDERING OR NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE TRAPPED WITHIN VERY WEAK STEERING CURRENTS FOR THE NEXT 12 HOUR OR SO. THE RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD AS A SHARP TROUGH TO THE NORTH MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. THIS NEW STEERING PATTERN WILL FORCE LISA ON A GENERAL NORTH TO NORTHWEST TRACK DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. TRACK MODEL OUTPUT RESEMBLES A FAN...WITH TRACKS VARYING FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE LARGE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/2100Z 17.5N 28.6W 35 KT 12HR VT 24/0600Z 17.5N 28.5W 40 KT 24HR VT 24/1800Z 19.0N 28.7W 45 KT 36HR VT 25/0600Z 20.5N 29.5W 35 KT 48HR VT 25/1800Z 22.0N 30.5W 35 KT 72HR VT 26/1800Z 24.0N 32.0W 30 KT 96HR VT 27/1800Z 26.0N 34.0W 25 KT 120HR VT 28/1800Z 28.5N 36.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
