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| #37829 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:43 PM 05.Aug.2005) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT FRI AUG 05 2005 DURING THE EVENING HOURS...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED SEVERAL BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH HARVEY. HOWEVER THE WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS EXPOSED AS A RESULT OF THE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THIS SHEAR IS FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND SLOWLY WEAKEN THE STORM. AFTERWHICH...MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE FORECASTS INTENSIFICATION AS HARVEY ACCELERATES AND INTERACTS WITH THE WESTERLIES WHILE UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. DESPITE THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS TO PULL HARVEY TO THE NORTH...THE OVERALL MOTION OF THE STORM REMAINS TO THE EAST AROUND 5 KNOTS. AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS TO THE RIGHT OF MODEL GUIDANCE DURING THE EARLIER PERIODS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES HARVEY IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY A RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. ONCE A SHORT WAVE RIDGE TO THE NORTH MOVES EAST...A WESTERLY SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD ACCELERATE HARVEY TO THE NORTHEAST. BASED ON A 2202 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS OVER HARVEY...THE 34 KT WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED AND INCREASED ACROSS THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. FORECASTER BEVEN/MAINELLI FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/0300Z 32.4N 57.0W 45 KT 12HR VT 06/1200Z 33.0N 56.2W 40 KT 24HR VT 07/0000Z 34.5N 55.3W 35 KT 36HR VT 07/1200Z 36.1N 54.4W 30 KT 48HR VT 08/0000Z 38.0N 52.5W 30 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 09/0000Z 42.0N 46.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 10/0000Z 45.0N 37.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 11/0000Z 47.0N 29.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
