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| #378497 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:41 PM 24.Sep.2010) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152010 500 PM EDT FRI SEP 24 2010 THE LATEST AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IN THE AREA FIXED THE CENTER OF MATTHEW AT 1717 UTC ABOUT 30 NMI EAST OF THE NORTHEAST COAST OF NICARAGUA WITH A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 998 MB AND WINDS SUPPORTING AN INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS. SINCE THEN...MATTHEW MOVED WESTWARD AND THE CENTER CROSSED THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA AND IS NOW LOCATED INLAND SOUTH OF PUERTO LEMPIRA HONDURAS. THE CLOUD PATTERN IS STILL WELL ORGANIZED WITH NUMEROUS CYCLONICALLY CURVED RAINBANDS TO THE NORTH AND VERY DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. SINCE THE CENTER IS ALREADY OVER LAND...GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN. AS THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE MOVES WESTWARD OVER HONDURAS DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...A LARGE PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION WILL BE OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS THERE WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE. THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE BASED ON AIRCRAFT AND NOAA BUOY DATA. MATTHEW HAS DECREASED SOME IN FORWARD SPEED AND IS MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 13 KNOTS...WELL EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH. THIS PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH IN THE SHORT TERM...SO THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION IN ABOUT 2 TO 3 DAYS. FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY DEPICTING A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE MOST RECENT RUNS INDICATE THAT ANY DEVELOPMENT THERE WOULD LIKELY NOT HAVE CONTINUITY WITH MATTHEW... BUT RATHER REPRESENT THE FORMATION A NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/2100Z 14.7N 83.7W 40 KT 12HR VT 25/0600Z 15.2N 85.6W 35 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 25/1800Z 15.8N 88.0W 30 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 26/0600Z 16.5N 90.0W 25 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 26/1800Z 17.0N 91.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72HR VT 27/1800Z 17.0N 91.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96HR VT 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
