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| #378671 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:47 AM 25.Sep.2010) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152010 1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 25 2010 THE INNER CORE OF MATTHEW HAS BECOME DISRUPTED WHILE MOVING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AMERICA. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE HAS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH PLENTY OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE AREA OF STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY OVER GUATEMALA AND SOUTHERN BELIZE. THE LOW LEVEL CENTER...OR WHAT IS LEFT OF IT...IS VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...BUT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM HONDURAS AND BELIZE INDICATE THAT THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED JUST OFF THE NORTH COAST OF WESTERN HONDURAS. MATTHEW IS STILL GENERATING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS NORTH OF THE CENTER...AS INDICATED BY THE STRONG EASTERLY WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE REPORTED BY THE BELIZE RAOB THIS MORNING. INITIAL INTENSITY IS 35 KNOTS BUT GIVEN THAT MOST OF THE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER LAND...WEAKENING IS FORECAST. THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS THAT MATTHEW IS SLOWING DOWN YET. THE INITIAL MOTION IS TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 KNOTS. HOWEVER STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO COLLAPSE AND THE ENTIRE CIRCULATION SHOULD BEGIN TO DRIFT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS UNTIL DISSIPATION. MANY OF THE TRACK MODELS KEEP MATTHEW OVER NORTHERN GUATEMALA OR EASTERN MEXICO WHERE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS MATTHEW DISSIPATING OR BECOMING A REMNANT LOW. WE MUST EMPHASIZE THAT THE LARGEST THREAT FROM MATTHEW IS HEAVY RAINS. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CONTINUE AFTER MATTHEW DISSIPATES DUE TO MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SPREADING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...WHICH IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/1500Z 16.2N 87.8W 35 KT 12HR VT 26/0000Z 16.5N 89.5W 30 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 26/1200Z 17.0N 90.5W 25 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 27/0000Z 17.5N 91.5W 25 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 27/1200Z 17.5N 91.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72HR VT 28/1200Z...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
