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| #37868 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:46 AM 06.Aug.2005) TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SAT AUG 06 2005 TD-9 REMAINS A LARGE AND WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION...AND THE INNER CORE WIND FIELD HAS ACTUALLY IMPROVED CONSIDERABLY SINCE THIS TIME YESTERDAY WITH NO MULTIPLE CIRCULATIONS APPARENT IN NIGHTIME VISIBLE IMAGERY. THE INTENSITY IS BEING INCREASED TO 30 KT BASED ON THE TIGHTER INNER CIRCULATION...TWO CONSECUTIVE QUIKSCAT OVERPASSES INDICATING NUMEROUS 30-KT UNFLAGGED WIND VECTORS IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...AND A CIMSS AMSU PRESSURE ESTIMATE OF 1006.5MB ...EQUAL TO ABOUT 33 KT. CONVECTION HAS BEEN RECENTLY BEEN TRYING TO DEVELOP INTO A CURVED BAND IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE ABOUT 120 NMI AWAY FROM THE CENTER...WHICH FURTHER SUGGEST IMPROVED ORGANIZATION. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/13. THE DEPRESSION HAS SLOWED AND TURNED MORE WESTWARD NOW THAT THE CYCLONE HAS MOVED WEST OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED TO THE NORTH. THE FORECAST TRACK IS PROBLEMATIC IN THAT IT IS DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE INTENSITY...AND THEREFORE...THE VERTICAL DEPTH OF CYCLONE. UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE SYSTEM FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. THESE UNFAVORABLE SHEAR CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD KEEP CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE CYCLONE TO A MINIMUM DURING THAT TIME. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO BE STEERED MORE WESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. BY 72 HOURS...THE CYCLONE WILL BE OVER WARMER WATER AND MORE STEADY INTENSIFICATION AND DEEPENING OF THE VERTICAL CIRCULATION SHOULD OCCUR...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO BE STEERED SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD BY THE DEEP-LAYER FLOW TOWARD AN EXPECTED WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BETWEEN 55W-60W LONGITUDE. HOWEVER...IF THE STORM MOVES MORE WESTWARD AND STAYS BELOW 20N LATITUDE THROUGH 72 HOURS...THEN IT MAY NEVER FEEL THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AND NOT TURN NORTHWESTWARD. SINCE THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE ALREADY TOO FAR TO THE NORTH OR RIGHT OF THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION...THE OFFICIAL TRACK WAS SHIFTED TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND IS CLOSE TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 72 HOURS AND THEN A LITTLE LEFT OF THE CONSENSUS AFTER THAT...BUT NOT NEARLY AS FAR LEFT OR SOUTH AS THE UKMET MODEL. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED INHIBITING FACTORS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO ABATE FOR AT LEAST 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS MODEL THROUGH 72 HOURS AND THEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER AFTER THAT SINCE THE FORECAST TRACK IS FARTHER SOUTH IN A LOWER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THAN WHAT THE SHIPS MODEL USED. HOWEVER... IF THE ACTUAL FORECAST ENDS UP BEING FARTHER SOUTH...THEN WARMER WATER AND EVEN LESS VERTICAL SHEAR WOULD ALLOW FOR MORE STRENGTHENING THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/0900Z 17.7N 41.7W 30 KT 12HR VT 06/1800Z 18.2N 43.8W 30 KT 24HR VT 07/0600Z 18.8N 46.4W 35 KT 36HR VT 07/1800Z 19.4N 48.6W 35 KT 48HR VT 08/0600Z 20.1N 51.0W 40 KT 72HR VT 09/0600Z 21.3N 54.0W 40 KT 96HR VT 10/0600Z 23.0N 57.0W 45 KT 120HR VT 11/0600Z 25.5N 59.5W 55 KT |
