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| #378729 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:35 PM 25.Sep.2010) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142010 500 PM AST SAT SEP 25 2010 CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE WESTERLY SHEAR IS TAKING ITS TOLL ON LISA WITH ITS UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NOW DISPLACED MORE THAN 100 NMI TO THE EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. AS A RESULT...SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN RAPIDLY DECREASING DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES T3.5/55 KT FROM TAFB...T1.5/25 KT FROM SAB...AND AN ADT VALUE OF T3.0/45 KT FROM UW-CIMSS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 350/10. LISA REMAINS ON TRACK AND THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...AND CONTINUE THAT MOTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS MUCH MORE CONVERGENT NOW...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO MORE THAN 30 KT BY 24 HOURS...WHICH COULD HASTEN THE ONGOING WEAKENING TREND. THE GFS-BASED SHIPS MODEL INDICATES DISSIPATION BY 48 HOURS...BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DELAYS DISSIPATION DUE TO INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION POSSIBLY KEEPING THE CIRCULATION ALIVE A LITTLE BIT LONGER...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE LGEM...HWRF...AND GFDL SOLUTIONS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS A BLEND OF THE NHC OBJECTIVE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/2100Z 23.7N 28.4W 45 KT 12HR VT 26/0600Z 24.7N 28.6W 40 KT 24HR VT 26/1800Z 26.1N 28.8W 35 KT 36HR VT 27/0600Z 27.4N 29.0W 30 KT 48HR VT 27/1800Z 28.6N 29.3W 30 KT 72HR VT 28/1800Z 30.7N 30.0W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96HR VT 29/1800Z 32.5N 30.5W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120HR VT 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER STEWART |
