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| #378737 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:08 PM 25.Sep.2010) TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152010 400 PM CDT SAT SEP 25 2010 HIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM CENTRAL AMERICA SHOW THAT THE CIRCULATION OF MATTHEW MOVED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF HONDURAS AND BELIZE WHILE WEAKENING. THE CYCLONE DOES NOT HAVE A TIGHT INNER CORE AND WE ARE BASICALLY TRACKING AN AREA OF MINIMUM PRESSURE SURROUNDED BY A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...THE CIRCULATION IS LARGE WITH NUMEROUS RAINBANDS FROM THE ADJACENT EASTERN PACIFIC ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TO THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 30 KNOTS AND GIVEN THAT THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER LAND... WEAKENING IS FORECAST. MATTHEW HAS NOT SLOWED DOWN YET...AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS. HOWEVER...STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO COLLAPSE SOON AND MATTHEW IS LIKELY TO BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA UNTIL DISSIPATION IN ABOUT 2 OR 3 DAYS. IN FACT...MOST OF THE MODELS KEEP THE CYCLONE BASICALLY MEANDERING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. WE MUST EMPHASIZE THAT DESPITE THE EXPECTED WEAKENING OF MATTHEW... TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/2100Z 17.4N 89.4W 30 KT...INLAND 12HR VT 26/0600Z 18.0N 90.5W 25 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 26/1800Z 18.5N 91.0W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36HR VT 27/0600Z 18.5N 91.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48HR VT 27/1800Z 18.5N 91.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72HR VT 28/1800Z 19.0N 90.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96HR VT 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
