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| #37875 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:03 AM 06.Aug.2005) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SAT AUG 06 2005 A DEEP BURST OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER AND NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUSLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 45 KT...WHICH SUPPORTED BY AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT OVERPASS THAT CONTAINED 40-KT AND 50-KT UNFLAGGED WIND VECTORS JUST NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 030/06. HARVEY HAS TURNED TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST SOONER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...BUT THE OVERALL FORECAST TRACK AND REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT IS STILL TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. HARVEY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE OVER COOLER WATER AND GRADUALLY COME UNDER INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST AND LIFTS OUT THE CYCLONE TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS SHOULD BRING ABOUT GRADUAL WEAKENING UNTIL THE CYCLONE GETS CAPTURED BY THE SYSTEM AND DEEPENS SLIGHTLY INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY 72 HOURS. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/0900Z 33.3N 56.6W 45 KT 12HR VT 06/1800Z 34.2N 56.1W 40 KT 24HR VT 07/0600Z 35.6N 55.1W 35 KT 36HR VT 07/1800Z 37.2N 53.8W 30 KT 48HR VT 08/0600Z 39.2N 51.2W 30 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 09/0600Z 42.4N 44.1W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 10/0600Z 45.0N 36.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 11/0600Z 48.5N 27.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
