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| #378884 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:35 AM 26.Sep.2010) TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142010 1100 AM AST SUN SEP 26 2010 LISA HAS LOST NEARLY ALL OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION AND NOW CONSISTS PRIMARILY OF A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS. AN 1104 UTC ASCAT OVERPASS CAPTURED THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION AND SHOWED A SMALL AREA OF 25 TO 30 KT WINDS. BASED ON THIS DATA AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE COMBINATION OF CONTINUED STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 25 C...AND A STABLE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD PREVENT THE FORMATION OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF LISA...THEREFORE...DEGENERATION TO A REMNANT LOW IS FORECAST TO OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE REMNANT LOW WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR A FEW DAYS. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 6 KT. LISA...OR ITS REMNANT LOW...IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS STEERED BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER WESTERN AFRICA AND A TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS AGAIN NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST...TRENDING TOWARD THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/1500Z 25.6N 29.1W 30 KT 12HR VT 27/0000Z 26.4N 29.8W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24HR VT 27/1200Z 27.5N 30.6W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36HR VT 28/0000Z 28.7N 31.3W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48HR VT 28/1200Z 29.8N 31.5W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72HR VT 29/1200Z 31.3N 31.3W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96HR VT 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI |
