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| #37914 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:58 AM 06.Aug.2005) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SAT AUG 06 2005 DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES JUST NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 09Z INDICATES WINDS OF 50-55 KT...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 50 KT ON THIS BASIS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS BEFORE HARVEY ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATERS. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT HARVEY COULD RE-INTENSITY AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. THE MOTION HAS TURNED MORE TO THE NORTH...010/6...AND THE LAST COUPLE OF SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER MIGHT ACTUALLY HAVE MEANDERED TO THE NORTHWEST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IN THE WESTERLIES OFF OF NEW ENGLAND IS PUSHING EASTWARD. THIS SHOULD INDUCE A GRADUAL BEND OF THE TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND FAVORS THE GFDL OVER THE GFS INITIALLY...AS THE MOST RECENT RUN OF THE GFDL SEEMS TO HAVE BETTER CAPTURED THE RECENT LEFT TURN. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/1500Z 33.9N 56.5W 50 KT 12HR VT 07/0000Z 34.9N 56.2W 55 KT 24HR VT 07/1200Z 36.2N 55.1W 45 KT 36HR VT 08/0000Z 37.7N 53.4W 35 KT 48HR VT 08/1200Z 39.3N 51.1W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 09/1200Z 42.0N 44.5W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 10/1200Z 43.0N 36.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 11/1200Z 45.5N 27.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
