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| #379444 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:56 PM 28.Sep.2010) TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162010 500 PM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010 THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FOUND THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER CONSISTED OF A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT WINDS AND NEARLY UNIFORM PRESSURE. INDEED...WINDS WERE 20 KT OR LESS WITHIN 100 N MI OR MORE OF THE CENTER. CLEARLY...THIS IS NOT A CLASSICAL TROPICAL CYCLONE AND THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE LOCATED SOME 200 N MI SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. OBSERVATIONS FROM NOAA DATA BUOY 42057 FROM EARLY THIS MORNING AND ASCAT DATA FROM AROUND 1500 UTC SUGGESTED THAT THE SYSTEM MAY HAVE BEEN A MARGINAL TROPICAL STORM EARLIER TODAY. THERE IS SOME QUESTION...HOWEVER...AS TO WHETHER THOSE WINDS WERE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE CYCLONE SCALE. IN ANY EVENT...RECENT HURRICANE HUNTER DATA SHOWS NO EVIDENCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AT THIS TIME. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE...WITH RAGGED-LOOKING BANDING FEATURES AND VERY LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...ALONG WITH THE CURRENT STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE...SHOULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE LATEST STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL LGEM PREDICTION. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM SHOULD MERGE WITH A FRONT AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 36 TO 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE MODELS ALSO SHOW WHAT APPEARS TO BE A NEW BAROCLINIC DEVELOPMENT TO THE NORTH REPLACING THE FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE...SO DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED BY 72 HOURS. BASED ON A BLEND OF THE AIRCRAFT...SURFACE...AND SATELLITE DATA THE CENTER HAS BEEN RELOCATED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. NO SIGNIFICANT MODIFICATIONS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST OR SYNOPTIC REASONING. A CONTINUED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH ACCELERATION...BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES. THE TRACK FORECAST IS NOW A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS BUT QUITE CLOSE TO THE NEW U.K. MET. OFFICE AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODEL TRACKS. UNLESS THE CIRCULATION OF THE CYCLONE TIGHTENS UP SOON...THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER ACROSS CUBA AND FLORIDA WILL BE RELATIVELY UNIMPORTANT...SINCE THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HEAVIEST RAINS WILL OCCUR WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/2100Z 21.5N 82.4W 30 KT 12HR VT 29/0600Z 23.0N 81.7W 35 KT 24HR VT 29/1800Z 25.4N 80.6W 40 KT 36HR VT 30/0600Z 29.0N 79.5W 40 KT 48HR VT 30/1800Z 34.0N 78.0W 40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72HR VT 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
