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| #379536 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:56 AM 29.Sep.2010) TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162010 200 AM EDT WED SEP 29 2010 ...CENTER OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION CROSSING CUBA EAST OF HAVANA... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.7N 81.6W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM ESE OF HAVANA CUBA ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SSW OF MIAMI FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CAYMAN ISLANDS * THE PROVINCES OF CUBA FROM MATANZAS EASTWARD TO CIEGO DE AVILA * THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS * JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE AND FLORIDA BAY * THE FLORIDA KEYS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO SEBASTIAN INLET FLORIDA * NORTH OF EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.6 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH... 17 KM/HR. A MOTION TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR NORTHEAST ACCOMPANIED BY A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL MOVE ACROSS CUBA AND EMERGE OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS LATER THIS MORNING...AND BE NEAR OR OVER SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MAINLY IN RAIN BANDS WELL TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...BEFORE MERGING WITH A FRONTAL ZONE ON THURSDAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS... JAMAICA...AND CUBA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CUBA AND JAMAICA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL BE AFFECTING THE WARNING AREAS THIS MORNING...AND SPREAD INTO THE BAHAMAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA BY THIS AFTERNOON. TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART/AVILA |
