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| #379642 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:56 AM 29.Sep.2010) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162010 1100 AM EDT WED SEP 29 2010 BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED CLOSER TO THE CENTER OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION SINCE YESTERDAY. ALSO...THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW SHIP...BUOY...AND LAND OBSERVATIONS OF SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. BASED ON THE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION AND THE SURFACE DATA...THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM NICOLE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM CUBA AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF NICOLE WAS LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF CUBA AROUND 1200 UTC THIS MORNING. SURFACE DATA SHOW THAT THE CYCLONE CORE CONSISTS OF A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT WINDS...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS STILL OCCURRING WELL TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE OBSERVATIONS ALSO INDICATE THAT A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NORTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA. THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT EXTRATROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR ALONG THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST OF CENTRAL OR NORTH FLORIDA LATER TODAY. THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. NICOLE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CUBA AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...AND IS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE AS THE EXTRATROPICAL DEVELOPMENT BECOMES THE DOMINANT EVENT. THE NEW NHC TRACK IS A LITTLE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND SHOWS DISSIPATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MUCH SOONER THAN PREVIOUSLY PREDICTED. GIVEN THE COMPLEXITY OF THE SCENARIO...HOWEVER... UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. BASED ON THE UPDATED FORECAST TRACK...ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR FLORIDA HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM NICOLE IS HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY OVER MOUNTAINOUS AREAS OF JAMAICA AND CUBA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/1500Z 22.6N 80.6W 35 KT 12HR VT 30/0000Z 24.7N 79.8W 35 KT 24HR VT 30/1200Z 29.4N 78.4W 35 KT...POST-TROPICAL 36HR VT 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH |
