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| #38046 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:31 PM 06.Aug.2005) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SAT AUG 06 2005 AFTER MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH HARVEY'S CIRCULATION EXPOSED...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THE CENTER IS TUCKED UNDER THE CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN. EVEN THOUGH THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE MAINLY NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...CONFIRMED BY A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS...THE OVERALL APPEARANCE OF HARVEY ON SATELLITE REMAINS SURPRISINGLY GOOD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A DIGGING SHORT WAVE TROUGH EAST OF THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST. THE APRROACHING TROUGH MAY BE AIDING IN HARVEY'S PERSISTENCE IN REMAINING A 50 KT TROPICAL STORM DUE TO TROUGH INTERACTION. HARVEY IS FINALLY SUSTAINING A NORTHEAST MOTION AT 040/8. AS THE SHORT WAVE APPROACHES...THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD ACCELERATE HARVEY SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER... HARVEY IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS THE STORM MOVES OVER THE COLD NORTH ATLANTIC WATERS. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT EXTRATROPICAL HARVEY MAY LINGER FOR A FEW DAYS IN EASTERN ATLANTIC. FORECASTER AVILA/MAINELLI FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/0300Z 34.4N 55.0W 50 KT 12HR VT 07/1200Z 35.4N 54.3W 50 KT 24HR VT 08/0000Z 37.0N 52.8W 45 KT 36HR VT 08/1200Z 38.5N 51.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 09/0000Z 39.7N 48.6W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 10/0000Z 41.5N 44.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 11/0000Z 43.0N 38.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 12/0000Z 44.0N 32.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
