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| #38206 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:37 PM 07.Aug.2005) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SUN AUG 07 2005 TODAY'S VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES HAVE REVEALED SEVERAL LOW-LEVEL CENTERS ROTATING AROUND A MEAN CIRCULATION OF HARVEY A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS POSITION. WE CAN EXPECT SEVERAL MORE OF THESE SMALL CIRCULATIONS TO DEVELOP...DISSIPATE..AND RE-DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS THE PRIMARY CENTER CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES WERE 3.0/3.0...SO HARVEY REMAINS A SHEARED 45 KT TROPICAL STORM FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE 34-KT WIND RADII AND 12-FT SEAS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON AN 18Z SHIP REPORT. THE 18-HOUR AVERAGED MOTION IS 045/11. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS FOLLOWED BY A SLOWER FOREWARD MOTION THEREAFTER. THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...ALONG 60W...IS CONTINUING TO DIG WEST OF HARVEY AND WILL STEER THE STORM NORTHEASTWARD. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE TROUGH PASSING TO THE EAST OF HARVEY IN 2 OR 3 DAYS. ONCE THIS OCCURS... HARVEY SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE WEAKER WESTERLIES. THE FORECAST TRACK IS CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE OTHER THAN A SLIGHT SHIFT TO THE NORTH TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL RE-LOCATED CENTER...AND A SLOWER EAST- NORTHEAST MOTION IN THE LATER PERIODS. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL HOPEFULLY OCCUR IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. THE INTENSITY FORECAST MAINTAINS GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH 5 DAYS. FORECASTER MAINELLI/FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/2100Z 37.0N 52.6W 45 KT 12HR VT 08/0600Z 37.9N 51.4W 40 KT 24HR VT 08/1800Z 39.1N 49.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 09/0600Z 40.2N 47.2W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 09/1800Z 41.0N 44.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 10/1800Z 42.2N 40.7W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 11/1800Z 43.0N 38.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 12/1800Z 43.0N 35.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
