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| #38210 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:40 PM 07.Aug.2005) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SUN AUG 07 2005 THE DEEP CONVECTION THAT WAS NEAR THE CENTER OF IRENE THIS MORNING HAS DISSIPATED OR BEEN LEFT BEHIND BY WESTERLY SHEAR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 35 KT FOR NOW...BUT IF CONVECTION DOES NOT RETURN THE CIRCULATION WILL GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN. FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO IRENE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY DRY AIR AND NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE CYCLONE MAY WELL NOT SURVIVE THIS TRIP BUT IF IT DOES...GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER PATTERN MAY EXIST AFTER 48 HOURS. WATER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE GRADUALLY INCREASING ALONG THE PATH OF IRENE SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL SHOWS SOME STRENGTHENING LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE BELOW THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. THE GFDL MODEL DISSIPATES IRENE WITHIN 48 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/9...AND THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING. A MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CURRENTLY LIES TO THE NORTHWEST OF IRENE. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CANADIAN MODEL...GUIDANCE AGREES THAT THIS RIDGE WILL MOVE WESTWARD AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. IRENE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND THEN TURN NORTHWARD INTO A WEAKNESS TO THE EAST OF THIS RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS NEAR THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/2100Z 21.1N 46.5W 35 KT 12HR VT 08/0600Z 21.7N 47.8W 35 KT 24HR VT 08/1800Z 22.4N 49.6W 35 KT 36HR VT 09/0600Z 23.0N 51.3W 35 KT 48HR VT 09/1800Z 23.8N 53.0W 40 KT 72HR VT 10/1800Z 26.0N 55.5W 45 KT 96HR VT 11/1800Z 29.0N 58.0W 50 KT 120HR VT 12/1800Z 32.5N 58.0W 50 KT |
