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| #382499 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:34 PM 11.Oct.2010) TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM PAULA ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010 500 PM EDT MON OCT 11 2010 ...NEW TROPICAL STORM FORMS NEAR THE COAST OF HONDURAS...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.0N 84.0W ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM ESE OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CANCUN...INCLUDING COZUMEL. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA GRUESA. THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CANCUN... INCLUDING COZUMEL A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS * THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA GRUESA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE 24 TO 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE IMMINENT IN THE WARNING AREA IN HONDURAS...AND THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN MEXICO WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAULA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.0 WEST. PAULA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF PAULA WILL BEGIN MOVING AWAY FROM THE COAST OF HONDURAS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND APPROACH THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND PAULA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA IN HONDURAS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY LATE TUESDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...EASTERN HONDURAS ...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...WHERE THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ON THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
