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| #382575 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:49 PM 11.Oct.2010) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM PAULA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010 1100 PM EDT MON OCT 11 2010 SEVERAL MICROWAVE IMAGES PRIOR TO 0000 UTC INDICATED THAT THE CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE MASS. SINCE THAT TIME THE CONVECTION HAS FORMED OVER THE ESTIMATED CENTER AND IT APPEARS THAT PAULA IS STRENGTHENING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 60 KT...BASED ON THE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS EN ROUTE AND SHOULD PROVIDE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF THE INTENSITY OF PAULA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PAULA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATER AND IN LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS ENVIRONMENT FAVORS STRENGTHENING AND THE NHC FORECAST IS NEAR THE UPPER-END OF THE GUIDANCE. BY 48 HOURS...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND DRIER AIR OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIKELY INDUCE WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AT 3-5 DAYS IS LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. THE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/10. PAULA IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTH-NORTHWEST THEN NORTH AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY FASTER DURING THE FIRST 24-36 HOURS...WHICH RESULTS IN A POSITION NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK. AFTER 36 HOURS...THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS SHOULD CAUSE PAULA TO SLOW DOWN AS THE STEERING CURRENTS COLLAPSE. GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE BEYOND 48 HOURS...THE CONFIDENCE IN THE LATTER PORTION OF THE TRACK REMAINS QUITE LOW. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/0300Z 16.8N 84.6W 60 KT 12HR VT 12/1200Z 17.9N 85.5W 70 KT 24HR VT 13/0000Z 19.4N 86.3W 80 KT 36HR VT 13/1200Z 20.4N 86.7W 85 KT 48HR VT 14/0000Z 21.0N 86.4W 75 KT 72HR VT 15/0000Z 21.5N 85.5W 60 KT 96HR VT 16/0000Z 21.5N 84.5W 55 KT 120HR VT 17/0000Z 21.5N 83.5W 45 KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI |
