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| #382599 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:58 AM 12.Oct.2010) TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM PAULA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010 200 AM EDT TUE OCT 12 2010 ...PAULA VERY NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.2N 84.9W ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE... INCLUDING COZUMEL A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS * THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA GRUESA * THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO CATOCHE TO SAN FELIPE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF BELIZE A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAULA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.9 WEST. PAULA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED LATE TODAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF PAULA WILL APPROACH THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY...AND PAULA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 991 MB...29.26 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER...EASTERN HONDURAS...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...AND NORTHERN BELIZE. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN IN HONDURAS... WHERE THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ON THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN |
