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| #382628 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:37 AM 12.Oct.2010) TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM PAULA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010 0900 UTC TUE OCT 12 2010 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE... INCLUDING COZUMEL A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS * THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA GRUESA * THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO CATOCHE TO SAN FELIPE A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 85.2W AT 12/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 45SE 45SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 85.2W AT 12/0900Z AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 85.0W FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 18.7N 86.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 20.1N 86.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 21.0N 86.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 45NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 21.5N 86.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 45SW 45NW. 34 KT...105NE 110SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 21.5N 85.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 45SE 35SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 75SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 21.5N 84.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 21.0N 83.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 85.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN |
