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| #382637 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:53 AM 12.Oct.2010) TCDAT3 HURRICANE PAULA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010 500 AM EDT TUE OCT 12 2010 THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS MEASURED A PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 65 KT AND A MAXIMUM SFMR-OBSERVED SURFACE WIND OF 62 KT. IT IS PROBABLE THAT THE AIRCRAFT DID NOT SAMPLE THE VERY HIGHEST WINDS IN THE CYCLONE. MOREOVER...A DROPSONDE IN THE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE SOUTHEASTERN EYEWALL SHOWED THAT THE WINDS FROM AROUND 900 MB DOWN TO THE SURFACE WERE 65-70 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA...PAULA IS UPGRADED TO A 65-KT HURRICANE. SINCE THE SYSTEM WILL BE TRAVERSING THE WATERS OF THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA...THE OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT...HOWEVER...WILL LIKELY BECOME INCREASINGLY LESS CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION AS GLOBAL MODEL PREDICTIONS SHOW STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS IMPACTING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS AND DRIER AIR PUSHING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE CIRCULATION LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO FOLLOWED BY STEADY WEAKENING. THIS IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE NUMERICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE LATEST GFS AND U.K. MET GLOBAL MODEL RUNS IMPLY MORE WEAKENING IN 3 TO 5 DAYS THAN SHOWN BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT THE MOTION IS BEGINNING TO LEAN A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AND IS NOW AROUND 325/9. LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK FORECAST. PAULA IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THE GFDL ACCELERATING PAULA EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC IN SEVERAL DAYS AND THE GFS AND ECMWF GUIDANCE TURNING THE CYCLONE SOUTHWARD OR SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA. THE MODEL SPREAD IS AT LEAST PARTIALLY ATTRIBUTABLE TO THE PREDICTED INTENSITY. A STRONGER SYSTEM SUCH AS SHOWN BY THE GFDL WOULD LIKELY BE STEERED BY THE DEEP-LAYER WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND A WEAK/SHALLOW CYCLONE SUCH AS SHOWN BY THE GFS AND ECMWF WOULD LIKELY BE PUSHED SOUTHWARD BY LOW-LEVEL NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. SINCE WE EXPECT PAULA TO WEAKEN IN THE LATTER HALF OF FORECAST PERIOD...THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST KEEPS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS. AS NOTED IN EARLIER DISCUSSIONS...CONFIDENCE IN THE LATTER PORTION OF THE TRACK FORECAST IS LOW. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/0900Z 17.6N 85.2W 65 KT 12HR VT 12/1800Z 18.7N 86.0W 70 KT 24HR VT 13/0600Z 20.1N 86.5W 80 KT 36HR VT 13/1800Z 21.0N 86.5W 80 KT 48HR VT 14/0600Z 21.5N 86.0W 75 KT 72HR VT 15/0600Z 21.5N 85.0W 60 KT 96HR VT 16/0600Z 21.5N 84.0W 50 KT 120HR VT 17/0600Z 21.0N 83.5W 40 KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN |
