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| #38267 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:46 PM 07.Aug.2005) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SUN AUG 07 2005 HARVEY HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH THE ESTIMATED CENTER NEAR THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK T-NUMBERS...BASED ON A SHEAR PATTERN...REMAIN AT 3.0...45 KT. HARVEY WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS WITHIN 24 HOURS AND SHOULD BEGIN TO LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS SOON. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 045/11. HARVEY IS MOVING WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES. GLOBAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE STEERING FLOW WILL WEAKEN LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THAT THE CYCLONE COULD BECOME CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN BRANCH OF WESTERLIES. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE TRACK GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM MAY EVEN MOVE A LITTLE SOUTHWARD. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MOVES THE CYCLONE VERY SLOWLY FROM DAYS 4 TO 5. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 08/0300Z 37.8N 51.5W 45 KT 12HR VT 08/1200Z 38.8N 50.1W 40 KT 24HR VT 09/0000Z 39.8N 48.1W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 09/1200Z 40.7N 46.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 10/0000Z 41.5N 44.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 11/0000Z 42.5N 40.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 12/0000Z 43.0N 36.5W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 13/0000Z 43.0N 35.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
