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| #382685 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:43 AM 12.Oct.2010) TCDAT3 HURRICANE PAULA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010 1000 AM CDT TUE OCT 12 2010 PAULA IS A SMALL HURRICANE. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN CONSISTS OF A ROUND AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH A HINT OF AN EYE FEATURE AND LIMITED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. LATEST AVAILABLE SSMI IMAGERY SHOWS A DISTINCT RING OF CONVECTION MARKING THE EYEWALL AT THE MIDDLE LEVELS. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 4.0 SUPPORTING AN INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. THE HURRICANE COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER BY JUDGING THE LATEST VISIBLE IMAGES. HOWEVER...I WOULD RATHER WAIT FOR THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE...WHICH WILL BE IN THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...TO ADJUST THE INTENSITY...IF NECESSARY. ALTHOUGH PAULA IS MOVING OVER AN AREA OF HIGH HEAT CONTENT WHICH IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION... THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 20 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS WOULD ONLY ALLOW SMALL STRENGTHENING BEFORE THE SHEAR INCREASES AND RESULTS IN GRADUAL WEAKENING. THE WEAKENING TREND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LGEM MODEL AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. PAULA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES ABOUT 9 KNOTS AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. SOON...THE HURRICANE WILL BECOME EMBEDDED IN VERY LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS...OR WITHIN WEAK MID-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE BASE OF A DEEPENING TROUGH SWINGING EASTWARD ACROSS THE UNITED STATES AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS PATTERN WOULD RESULT IN A SLOW EASTWARD TRACK BEYOND 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE HURRICANE COULD ALSO MEANDER OVER THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FOR SEVERAL DAYS WHILE GRADUALLY FADING AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS AND THE ECMWF. GIVEN SUCH LARGE SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE...THE CONFIDENCE IN THE LATTER PORTION OF THE TRACK FORECAST IS QUITE LOW. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/1500Z 18.6N 85.7W 65 KT 12HR VT 13/0000Z 19.9N 86.4W 75 KT 24HR VT 13/1200Z 21.0N 86.5W 75 KT 36HR VT 14/0000Z 21.5N 86.5W 75 KT 48HR VT 14/1200Z 22.0N 86.0W 75 KT 72HR VT 15/1200Z 22.0N 85.5W 60 KT 96HR VT 16/1200Z 22.0N 85.0W 50 KT 120HR VT 17/1200Z 21.5N 84.0W 40 KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
