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| #382815 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:40 PM 12.Oct.2010) TCMAT3 HURRICANE PAULA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010 0300 UTC WED OCT 13 2010 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING SOUTH OF PUNTA ALLEN. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA ALLEN NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE... INCLUDING COZUMEL * THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO CUBA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO CATOCHE TO SAN FELIPE HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 86.0W AT 13/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 50NE 45SE 30SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 86.0W AT 13/0300Z AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 86.0W FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 20.9N 86.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 21.8N 85.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 22.1N 84.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 22.5N 83.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 22.5N 81.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 22.0N 80.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.9N 86.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI |
