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| #382817 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:43 PM 12.Oct.2010) TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE PAULA ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010 1000 PM CDT TUE OCT 12 2010 ...SMALL HURRICANE PAULA CHANGES LITTLE IN STRENGTH...MOVING TOWARD THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND EXTREME WESTERN CUBA... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.9N 86.0W ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING SOUTH OF PUNTA ALLEN. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA ALLEN NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE... INCLUDING COZUMEL * THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO CUBA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO CATOCHE TO SAN FELIPE FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.0 WEST. PAULA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF PAULA SHOULD REACH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ON WEDNESDAY AND BE NEAR OR OVER WESTERN CUBA WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PAULA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...BUT WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN THEREAFTER. PAULA IS A SMALL HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN MEXICO LATER TONIGHT...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH EXTREME WESTERN CUBA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. OVER EXTREME WESTERN CUBA...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 AM CDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI |
