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| #382829 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:52 AM 13.Oct.2010) TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE PAULA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010 100 AM CDT WED OCT 13 2010 ...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING SMALL HURRICANE PAULA SOUTH OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.4N 86.0W ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM E OF COZUMEL MEXICO ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA ALLEN NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE... INCLUDING COZUMEL * THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO CUBA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO CATOCHE TO SAN FELIPE FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.0 WEST. PAULA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST TO BEGIN BY THIS AFTERNOON. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE PAULA SHOULD REACH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND BE NEAR OR OVER WESTERN CUBA BY TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PAULA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY TONIGHT OR THURSDAY. PAULA IS A SMALL HURRICANE. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN MEXICO WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH EXTREME WESTERN CUBA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. OVER EXTREME WESTERN CUBA...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART/KIMBERLAIN |
