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| #382858 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:55 AM 13.Oct.2010) TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE PAULA ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010 400 AM CDT WED OCT 13 2010 ...SMALL HURRICANE PAULA MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA...STILL PACKING 100 MPH WINDS... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.7N 86.0W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM ENE OF COZUMEL MEXICO ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA ALLEN NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE... INCLUDING COZUMEL * THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO CUBA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO CATOCHE TO SAN FELIPE FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.0 WEST. PAULA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST TO BEGIN BY THIS AFTERNOON. ON THIS TRACK...THE SMALL CORE OF HURRICANE PAULA SHOULD REACH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND BE NEAR OR OVER WESTERN CUBA BY TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT RECENTLY INDICATED THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PAULA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...BUT GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS COULD REACH THE MEXICAN COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING. TROPICAL-STORM- FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH EXTREME WESTERN CUBA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS FORECAST BY TONIGHT. RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE...OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW OVER EXTREME WESTERN CUBA. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 AM CDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART/KIMBERLAIN |
