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| #382903 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:49 AM 13.Oct.2010) TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE PAULA ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010 1000 AM CDT WED OCT 13 2010 ...PAULA EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD WESTERN CUBA SOON...EYE CLEARLY SEEN ON CANCUN AND WESTERN CUBAN RADARS... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.3N 85.8W ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM ESE OF CABO CATOCHE MEXICO ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM WSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND HAS REPLACED IT WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM CANCUN TO CABO CATOCHE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO CUBA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF YUCATAN FROM CANCUN TO SAN FELIPE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...- * THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.8 WEST. PAULA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR...BUT THE HURRICANE SHOULD TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST LATER TODAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE SMALL CORE OF HURRICANE PAULA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TODAY...AND BE NEAR OR OVER WESTERN CUBA BY TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PAULA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE HURRICANE SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN TONIGHT. PAULA IS A SMALL HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS COULD STILL AFFECT A SMALL PORTION OF NORTHEAST YUCATAN WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER TODAY. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH EXTREME WESTERN CUBA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS FORECAST BY TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE LOWER AND MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS LATE THURSDAY. RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE...OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW OVER EXTREME WESTERN CUBA. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA/BERG |
