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| #382993 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:46 PM 13.Oct.2010) TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE PAULA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010 700 PM CDT WED OCT 13 2010 ...SMALL PAULA INCHING CLOSER TO THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.8N 85.6W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM W OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA AND CUIDAD DE LA HABANA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.6 WEST. PAULA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND EAST IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. ON THIS TRACK...PAULA WILL BE PASSING VERY NEAR OR OVER WESTERN CUBA TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PAULA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. PAULA IS A SMALL HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH EXTREME WESTERN CUBA LATER TONIGHT...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS FORECAST BY EARLY THURSDAY. WINDS COULD BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE LOWER AND MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS LATE THURSDAY. RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE...OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW OVER EXTREME WESTERN CUBA. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN/BLAKE |
