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| #383018 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:40 PM 13.Oct.2010) TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE PAULA ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010 1000 PM CDT WED OCT 13 2010 ...PAULA WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES WESTERN CUBA... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.9N 85.4W ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM W OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA AND CUIDAD DE LA HABANA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.4 WEST. PAULA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND EAST IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. ON THIS TRACK... PAULA WILL BE PASSING VERY NEAR OR OVER WESTERN CUBA ON THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PAULA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND PAULA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON THURSDAY. PAULA IS A SMALL HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH EXTREME WESTERN CUBA OVERNIGHT...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS FORECAST BY EARLY THURSDAY. WINDS COULD BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE LOWER AND MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS LATE THURSDAY. RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE...OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW OVER EXTREME WESTERN CUBA. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 AM CDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
