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| #383020 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:40 PM 13.Oct.2010) TCDAT3 HURRICANE PAULA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010 1000 PM CDT WED OCT 13 2010 ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN OF PAULA HAS GRADUALLY DETERIORATED THIS EVENING...THE EYE HAS REMAINED FAIRLY WELL INTACT IN CUBAN RADAR IMAGERY. A BLEND OF DVORAK T AND CI NUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB SUPPORT LOWERING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 70 KT. THE NEXT RECONNAISSANCE MISSION IS SCHEDULED TO REACH PAULA AROUND 0900 UTC. PAULA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...PRIMARILY DUE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND DRIER AIR THAT IS ADVECTING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD THE CYCLONE. IN ADDITION...THE EXPECTED LAND INTERACTION WITH WESTERN CUBA WILL LIKELY HASTEN THE DEMISE OF THE SMALL HURRICANE. PAULA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON THURSDAY AND DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN DRIFTING NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. PAULA IS FORECAST TO TURN EAST-NORTHEAST...THEN EAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. IF THE HURRICANE WEAKENS FASTER THAN PREDICTED BELOW...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IT WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD IN NORTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE LATTER SOLUTION IS FAVORED BY THE UKMET...GFS...AND ECMWF MODELS. THE NEW NHC TRACK IS ADJUSTED TOWARD THAT SCENARIO...BUT LIES NORTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/0300Z 21.9N 85.4W 70 KT 12HR VT 14/1200Z 22.3N 84.9W 60 KT 24HR VT 15/0000Z 22.7N 83.6W 50 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 15/1200Z 22.8N 82.1W 35 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 16/0000Z 22.5N 80.7W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72HR VT 17/0000Z 22.0N 79.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96HR VT 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
