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| #383070 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:59 AM 14.Oct.2010) TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE PAULA ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010 400 AM CDT THU OCT 14 2010 ...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS PAULA A LITTLE WEAKER... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.3N 84.9W ABOUT 30 MI...60 KM N OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM WSW OF HAVANA CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA AND CIUDAD DE LA HABANA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.9 WEST. PAULA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND EAST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ON THIS TRACK... PAULA WILL BE PASSING VERY NEAR OR OVER WESTERN CUBA LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PAULA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE CENTER MOVES OVER CUBA AND ENCOUNTERS UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...AND PAULA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. PAULA REMAINS A SMALL HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS SHOULD BE SPREADING ACROSS EXTREME WESTERN CUBA...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WINDS COULD BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE LOWER AND MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS LATE TODAY. RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE...OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW OVER EXTREME WESTERN CUBA. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 AM CDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
