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| #3831 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:41 PM 04.Aug.2004) TCDAT1 HURRICANE ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT WED AUG 04 2004 ALEX NOW HAS A WELL-DEFINED EYE WITHIN A WIDE SYMMETRIC RING OF CONVECTION AND WITH EXCELLENT OUTFLOW IN ALL DIRECTIONS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 90 KT BASED ON CONSENSUS 5.0 DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES. THE HURRICANE REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE NORTH WALL OF THE GULF STREAM OVER SSTS BETWEEN 26C AND 27C. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...IT WILL ENCOUNTER COOLER SSTS...BUT IT MAY REMAIN NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH UNTIL BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 075/16...A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT THAN EARLIER TODAY. ALL NHC MODEL GUIDANCE FORECASTS GRADUAL ACCELERATION WITHIN A STRONG WESTERLY MIDLATITUDE CURRENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN MORE TO THE EAST. MOST DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE HURRICANE SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH A MIDDLE LATITUDE FRONTAL SYSTEM IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...AND THEN BECOME ABSORBED A DAY OR TWO LATER. FORECASTER KNABB/AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/2100Z 37.9N 67.5W 90 KT 12HR VT 05/0600Z 39.0N 63.5W 90 KT 24HR VT 05/1800Z 42.0N 56.4W 80 KT 36HR VT 06/0600Z 44.6N 47.4W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 06/1800Z 45.4N 37.5W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 07/1800Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM |
