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| #383116 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:38 AM 14.Oct.2010) TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM PAULA ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010 1100 AM EDT THU OCT 14 2010 ...PAULA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...ADDITIONAL WEAKENING ANTICIPATED AS THE STORM HUGS THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.8N 84.1W ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM WSW OF HAVANA CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA AND CIUDAD DE LA HABANA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAULA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.1 WEST. PAULA IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR...BUT A TURN TO THE EAST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ON THIS TRACK...PAULA WILL CONTINUE TO HUG THE NORTH COAST OF WESTERN CUBA OR MOVE INLAND OVER CUBA TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND PAULA COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS SHOULD BE SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN CUBA TODAY PRIMARILY ALONG THE NORTH COAST. WINDS COULD BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE LOWER AND MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS LATE TODAY. RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH PAULA. THESE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH ARE POSSSIBLE FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS. STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE NORTH COAST OF EXTREME WESTERN CUBA. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
