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| #383144 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:53 PM 14.Oct.2010) TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM PAULA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010 200 PM EDT THU OCT 14 2010 ...CENTER OF PAULA NEAR PUERTO ESPERANZA ON THE NORTH COAST OF PINAR DEL RIO PROVINCE CUBA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.8N 83.5W ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM E OF PUERTO ESPERANZA CUBA ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM W OF HAVANA CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...105 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...16 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA AND CIUDAD DE LA HABANA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAULA IS MOVING NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA JUST EAST OF PUERTO ESPERANZA. AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF PAULA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.5 WEST. PAULA IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 10 MPH...16 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...PAULA WILL CONTINUE TO HUG THE NORTH COAST OF WESTERN CUBA OR MOVE INLAND OVER CUBA TODAY. PAULA IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...105 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND PAULA COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS SHOULD BE SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN CUBA TODAY PRIMARILY ALONG THE NORTH COAST. WINDS COULD BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE LOWER AND MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS LATE TODAY. RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH PAULA. THESE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS. STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE NORTH COAST OF WESTERN CUBA. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
