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| #383254 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:44 PM 14.Oct.2010) TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM PAULA ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010 1100 PM EDT THU OCT 14 2010 ...PAULA SKIRTING THE NORTH-CENTRAL COAST OF CUBA NEAR VERADERO... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.1N 81.4W ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM W OF VERADERO CUBA ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM WNW OF CAIBARIEN CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 85 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS FOR CUBA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAULA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.4 WEST. PAULA IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST ON SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND PAULA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON FRIDAY. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...MAINLY NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS COULD SPREAD EASTWARD NEAR THE COASTAL WATERS OF NORTH-CENTRAL CUBA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER CENTRAL CUBA AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS...AND UP TO AN INCH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE ADDITIONAL RAINS WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA. THESE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA. STORM SURGE VALUES WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ALONG THE NORTH-CENTRAL COAST OF CUBA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART |
