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| #383258 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:01 PM 14.Oct.2010) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM PAULA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010 1100 PM EDT THU OCT 14 2010 DATA FROM THE KEY WEST NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT...AND SATELLITES INDICATE TROPICAL STORM PAULA HAS RAPIDLY WEAKENED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT...AND CLOUD TOPS HAVE MARKEDLY WARMED. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM CUBA INDICATE THE INNER CORE WIND FIELD HAS ALSO BECOME ELONGATED WEST-TO-EAST NEAR VERADERO. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT IS BASED ON SFMR REPORTS OF 45 KT FROM SEVERAL HOURS AGO. PAULA IS MOVING EASTWARD OR 085/12. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP-LAYER WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A BROAD MID-LATITUDE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD...VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE LOW- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS TO DECOUPLE. THE RESULTANT SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL REMNANT CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE BE FORCED SOUTHWARD BY A LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT IS CURRENTLY BUILDING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...FLORIDA... AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE VERY DIVERGENT NHC MODEL GUIDANCE. INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR...DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT...AND PROXIMITY TO LAND WILL CONTINUE THE WEAKENING TREND THAT PAULA HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING FOR THE PAST 18 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS. NOTE...THE CUBAN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE REPORTED THAT A PEAK WIND GUST TO 65 KT...120 KM/HR...OCCURRED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON AT MARIEL. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/0300Z 23.1N 81.4W 40 KT...INLAND 12HR VT 15/1200Z 23.1N 80.0W 35 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 16/0000Z 23.0N 78.8W 30 KT 36HR VT 16/1200Z 22.8N 77.9W 25 KT 48HR VT 17/0000Z 22.0N 77.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72HR VT 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER STEWART |
