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| #383308 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:38 AM 15.Oct.2010) TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAULA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010 500 AM EDT FRI OCT 15 2010 PAULA HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THERE HAVE BEEN NO REPORTS OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS FROM CUBAN STATIONS SINCE THE CENTER PASSED HAVANA...AND WHEN THE CENTER PASSED VARADERO THE REPORTED PRESSURE WAS NEAR 1010 MB. IN ADDITION...THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED... WITH ONLY ONE CLUSTER LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. BASED ON THE CUBAN DATA...PAULA IS DOWNGRADED TO A 30-KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 085/12. PAULA IS BEING STEERED BY A DEEP-LAYER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH SHOULD CAUSE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO SHEAR APART...WITH THE REMAINS OF THE UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVING EASTWARD...AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER TURNING SOUTHEASTWARD OR SOUTHWARD DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE NORTH OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY ALL THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS A SIZEABLE SPREAD ON WHEN THE SOUTHWARD TURN WILL OCCUR. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK...BUT IS SHIFTED A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE EAST BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION. THE TRACK REMAINS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPS. PAULA WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE 35-40 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...ALONG WITH DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND INTERACTION WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THESE FACTORS SHOULD CAUSE CONTINUED WEAKENING...WITH THE CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA AFTER 24 HR. SEVERAL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM DISSIPATING COMPLETELY BEFORE 48 HR...SO THE REMNANT LOW MAY NOT SURVIVE AS LONG AS CURRENTLY FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/0900Z 23.1N 80.2W 30 KT 12HR VT 15/1800Z 23.2N 79.0W 25 KT 24HR VT 16/0600Z 23.0N 77.8W 25 KT 36HR VT 16/1800Z 22.4N 77.2W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48HR VT 17/0600Z 21.5N 77.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72HR VT 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
