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| #38356 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:55 AM 08.Aug.2005) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT MON AUG 08 2005 HARVEY IS STEADILY LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS EXPOSED AND THE WEAKENING CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER... AND ALONG A NARROW BAND STRETCHING TO THE SOUTHEAST. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES STILL SUPPORT 45 KT...WHICH IS THE ADVISORY INTENSITY. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED AS HARVEY GOES THROUGH EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN 12 HOURS... OR LESS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A GOOD BIT FASTER THAN BEFORE...NOW 050/19. HOWEVER...DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE THAT HARVEY WILL SLOW DOWN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND MEANDER LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR HARVEY IS EXPECTED TO LEAVE THE STORM BEHIND...WHERE IT MUST WAIT UNTIL THE NEXT MIDLATITUDE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC SEVERAL DAYS FROM NOW. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN HOW FAR HARVEY WILL TRAVEL EASTWARD BEFORE STALLING...WITH NOGAPS BEING THE FAST OUTLIER AND THE GFS AND GFDL BEING MUCH SLOWER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE LATTER SOLUTION BUT IS STILL FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DUE TO THE FASTER THAN EXPECTED ACCELERATION THIS MORNING. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 08/1500Z 40.3N 47.1W 45 KT 12HR VT 09/0000Z 41.2N 45.3W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 09/1200Z 42.2N 42.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 10/0000Z 42.7N 40.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 10/1200Z 42.9N 38.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 11/1200Z 43.0N 35.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 12/1200Z 42.5N 34.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 13/1200Z 42.0N 33.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
