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| #38411 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:52 PM 08.Aug.2005) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT MON AUG 08 2005 HARVEY IS MOVING OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 24 CELSIUS OR LESS AND LACKS CONVECTION NEAR THE EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER. THE CLOUD PATTERN IS ASYMMETRIC AND IS GRADUALLY MERGING WITH A MIDLATITUDE CLOUD BAND. EVEN THOUGH IT IS BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL... EX-HARVEY IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN GALE FORCE WINDS DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. HARVEY HAS BEGUN TO SLOW DOWN AGAIN AS EXPECTED... AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 055/17. WHILE THE STORM IS WELL-EMBEDDED IN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES... MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE THAT HARVEY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN AND PERHAPS MEANDER JUST NORTHWEST OF THE AZORES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE THE UKMET IS THE OUTLIER TAKING HARVEY QUICKLY TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST... THE GFS... NOGAPS... AND GFDL SHOW A GRADUAL TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST BEYOND DAY 3... AS DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 08/2100Z 40.8N 46.1W 45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 12HR VT 09/0600Z 41.9N 44.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 09/1800Z 43.3N 41.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 10/0600Z 44.0N 38.3W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 10/1800Z 44.6N 36.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 11/1800Z 44.5N 32.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 12/1800Z 44.0N 31.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 13/1800Z 43.5N 30.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
