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| #384324 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:34 PM 20.Oct.2010) TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010 1100 PM EDT WED OCT 20 2010 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 81.1W ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM S OF GRAND CAYMAN ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM NE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DEPRESSION. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.1 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST...IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...BUT THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER JAMAICA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH |
