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| #384326 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:35 PM 20.Oct.2010) TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010 1100 PM EDT WED OCT 20 2010 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS NOW LOCATED CLOSER TO THE MAIN MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION THAN IT WAS EARLIER TODAY. THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED...RESULTING IN DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS OF 1.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. DEEP CONVECTION HAS ALSO BEEN ON THE INCREASE DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. BASED PRIMARILY ON THE FACT THAT THE CIRCULATION CENTER IS NOW MORE INVOLVED WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION...THE SYSTEM IS BEING DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AT THIS TIME. RECONNAISSANCE DATA FROM EARLIER TODAY INDICATED AN INTENSITY NEAR 30 KT...AND IT IS ASSUMED THAT THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH SINCE THE TIME OF THOSE OBSERVATIONS. SINCE THE CENTER APPEARS TO HAVE REFORMED DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS...THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 100/02. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A COL REGION AT THE BASE OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND TO THE WEST OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. GLOBAL MODELS BUILD THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AS THE TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE REGION AFTER ABOUT 36 HOURS. THE MAJORITY OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS A SLOW LOOPING MOTION TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST... SOUTH...AND THEN SOUTHWEST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AFTER THAT...A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS INDICATED DUE TO THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO... EXCEPT FOR THE HWRF WHICH TAKES THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THEN TURNS IT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD FLORIDA. ALTHOUGH THE LATTER SOLUTION CANNOT BE COMPLETELY DISCOUNTED...THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK FORECAST LEANS TOWARDS A CONSENSUS OF THE OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS. UW-CIMSS ANALYSES INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION IS BEING AFFECTED BY MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TROUGH. AS THIS FEATURE LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...THE SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES A REDUCTION IN THE SHEAR IN A DAY OR TWO WHICH SHOULD FAVOR GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS COMPLICATED BY UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FUTURE INTERACTION WITH LAND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL LGEM GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/0300Z 17.5N 81.1W 30 KT 12HR VT 21/1200Z 17.1N 80.7W 30 KT 24HR VT 22/0000Z 16.8N 80.7W 30 KT 36HR VT 22/1200Z 16.4N 81.1W 35 KT 48HR VT 23/0000Z 16.3N 81.7W 40 KT 72HR VT 24/0000Z 16.6N 84.1W 50 KT 96HR VT 25/0000Z 18.0N 87.5W 55 KT 120HR VT 26/0000Z 19.5N 90.0W 30 KT $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH |
