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| #384373 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:46 AM 21.Oct.2010) TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010 0900 UTC THU OCT 21 2010 INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DEPRESSION. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 80.7W AT 21/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 135 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 80.7W AT 21/0900Z AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 80.9W FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 16.8N 80.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 16.5N 81.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 16.5N 81.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 16.5N 82.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 10SW 25NW. 34 KT... 75NE 50SE 20SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 17.5N 84.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 10SW 25NW. 34 KT... 75NE 50SE 20SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 19.0N 88.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 21.0N 90.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 80.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
