Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995
The Atlantic is quiet
|
Show Selection: |
| #384534 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:41 PM 21.Oct.2010) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010 1100 PM EDT THU OCT 21 2010 DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT RICHARD HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION SINCE EARLIER TODAY. THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BEEN AROUND 30 KT AND SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SFMR ARE AROUND 35 KT...WITH A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1007 MB. BASED UPON THESE MEASUREMENTS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY IS BEING HELD AT 35 KT. SATELLITE IMAGES REINFORCE THIS ASSESSMENT OF THE INTENSITY. THEY SHOW THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OF THE CYCLONE IS SOMEWHAT LINEAR AND THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT RAGGED...WITH THE SURFACE CENTER LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS. RECON FIXES YIELD AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 160/02. RICHARD IS MEANDERING IN A REGION OF WEAK STEERING LOCATED AT THE BASE OF A TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES/WESTERN ATLANTIC. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL BUILD EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND PUSH THE CYCLONE ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD THIS CYCLE AND HAS COME INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT AT LATER TIMES...WITH THE GFDL/HWRF SOLUTIONS NOW CLOSER TO THE MORE CONSISTENT GLOBAL MODELS. HOWEVER...SPREAD CONTINUES IN THE SOLUTIONS EVEN IN THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT BASED UPON THE TREND IN THE GUIDANCE BUT NOT AS FAR LEFT AS THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THE NEW TRACK IS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. VARIOUS ANALYSES INDICATE A CONTINUATION OF AROUND 10 KT OF SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER RICHARD. THE CYCLONE IS ALSO ENTRAINING DRY AIR PUSHED INTO THE AREA BY THE U. S. TROUGH. BOTH OF THESE FACTORS APPEAR TO BE PREVENTING INTENSIFICATION AT THE MOMENT. AFTER ABOUT 24 HOURS...THE SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS THE SHEAR DECREASING...AND THE CYCLONE GRADUALLY BECOMING EMBEDDED IN A MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. AS A RESULT OF THIS EVOLUTION...RICHARD IS FORECAST TO BEGIN STRENGTHENING. THE ONE CAVEAT TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE POTENTIAL INTERACTION OF THE CYCLONE WITH LAND WHICH COULD OCCUR EARLIER IF THE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK. THE OFFICIAL NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS LARGELY UNCHANGED AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LGEM/MULTI-MODEL INTENSITY CONSENSUS IVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/0300Z 15.9N 80.5W 35 KT 12HR VT 22/1200Z 15.8N 81.0W 40 KT 24HR VT 23/0000Z 15.8N 81.6W 45 KT 36HR VT 23/1200Z 16.0N 82.6W 55 KT 48HR VT 24/0000Z 16.5N 84.0W 65 KT 72HR VT 25/0000Z 17.5N 87.0W 75 KT 96HR VT 26/0000Z 19.5N 89.0W 40 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 27/0000Z 21.5N 89.0W 30 KT...OVER WATER $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BEVEN |
