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| #384588 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:38 AM 22.Oct.2010) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010 500 AM EDT FRI OCT 22 2010 THE CLOUD PATTERN APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED WITH VERY DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS...SUGGESTING THAT THE SHEAR HAS RELAXED A LITTLE BIT MORE. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED TO 3.0 AND 2.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT THE LAST RECON A FEW HOURS AGO FOUND A WEAK CYCLONE...MICROWAVE DATA DOES NOT SHOW AN INNER CORE...AND FURTHERMORE...ASCAT DATA SHOW MAXIMUM WINDS OF 30 KNOTS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT GENEROUSLY AT 35 KNOTS. ANOTHER PLANE WILL CHECK RICHARD ABOUT 12 UTC.0. NOW THAT THE SHEAR HAS RELAXED AND MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE IN THE AREA...STRENGTHENING SHOULD BEGIN. RICHARD IS FORECAST TO BE A HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. ONCE OVER YUCATAN THE EFFECT OF LAND AND INCREASING SHEAR WOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING. MODELS...PRIMARILY THE GFDL/HWRF PAIR...ARE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE IN INTENSIFYING RICHARD AS THEY WERE IN PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS IS PERHAPS BECAUSE THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING THE CYCLONE TO BE CLOSER TO LAND INSTEAD OF OVER THE OPEN NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA LIKE IN PREVIOUS RUNS. RICHARD HAS BARELY MOVED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WHILE IT IS STILL EMBEDDED WITHIN LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS. THIS STEERING PATTERN IS ABOUT TO CHANGE AS THE CURRENT TROUGH TO THE NORTH LIFTS OUT AND BECOMES REPLACED BY A STRONG RIDGE. THE FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL FORCE RICHARD ON A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. IT SEEMS THAT GLOBAL MODELS ARE DEVELOPING A STRONGER RIDGE THAN IN EARLIER RUNS...AND CONSEQUENTLY THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD A LITTLE BIT. NONE OF THE MODELS TURN THE CYCLONE NORTHWARD AND ARE FOLLOWING THE WESTWARD TREND INITIATED BY THE GFS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS ALSO BEEN ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/0900Z 16.0N 80.3W 35 KT 12HR VT 22/1800Z 15.9N 80.8W 40 KT 24HR VT 23/0600Z 15.9N 81.5W 45 KT 36HR VT 23/1800Z 16.0N 83.0W 50 KT 48HR VT 24/0600Z 16.5N 84.5W 60 KT 72HR VT 25/0600Z 17.5N 87.5W 70 KT 96HR VT 26/0600Z 19.0N 90.0W 35 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 27/0600Z 21.0N 91.5W 30 KT...OVER WATER $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
