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| #384704 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:56 PM 22.Oct.2010) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010 500 PM EDT FRI OCT 22 2010 THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE APPEARANCE OF RICHARD HAS SOMEWHAT DETERIORATED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS SHRUNK AND BECOME DISTORTED...WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PRESENT IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION. IN ADDITION...ASCAT DATA FROM 1536 UTC CONFIRMS THE ELONGATED CIRCULATION PRESENT ON THE LAST HURRICANE HUNTER MISSION...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FROM THE STORM. DESPITE THESE CONDITIONS...NOAA BUOY 42057 HAS REPORTED PEAK ONE-MINUTE WINDS OF 35-37 KT DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. DVORAK VALUES ARE 45 KT FROM BOTH TAFB/SAB... AND 61 KT FROM THE CIMSS ADT. GIVEN THE ABOVE DATA...THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE SET BETWEEN THE BUOY AND THE SATELLITE DATA TO 40 KT. THE CENTER APPEARS TO HAVE REFORMED A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE PREVIOUS CENTER. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS A LITTLE FASTER TO THE WEST...AT ABOUT 4 KT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON AN ACCELERATING MOTION TOWARD THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST DUE TO RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. PERHAPS BECAUSE OF THE STRONGER RIDGE...THE MODELS ARE A LITTLE FASTER THAN EARLIER...AND THE NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT TREND. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE PERIOD DUE TO A TROUGH ERODING THE GULF OF MEXICO RIDGE. AS FAR AS THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CONCERNED...RICHARD HAS STRUGGLED WITH DRY AIR AND SOME WESTERLY SHEAR MUCH LONGER THAN THE MODELS...AND FORECASTERS...EXPECTED. VISIBLE SATELLITE ALSO SUGGESTS SOME UNDERCUTTING OF THE CIRRUS LAYER...WHICH MATCHES UP WITH RECENT G-IV DROPS ON THE WEST SIDE OF RICHARD OF WESTERLY WINDS FROM 250-300 MB. THESE WESTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO REVERSE TO AN EASTERLY COMPONENT WITHIN 24 HOURS. THIS CHANGE MAY HERALD AN INTENSIFICATION PHASE...WHICH COULD BE RAPID IN NATURE GIVEN THE VERY LIGHT SHEAR FORECAST AND THE WARM DEEP WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. THE NHC FORECAST IS INCREASED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT IS NOT NEARLY AS BULLISH AS THE GFDL MODEL...WHICH MAKES RICHARD A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL. CONDITIONS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ARE LIKELY TO BE TOO HOSTILE FOR MUCH REINTENSIFICATION OF RICHARD. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/2100Z 16.2N 81.7W 40 KT 12HR VT 23/0600Z 16.2N 82.5W 45 KT 24HR VT 23/1800Z 16.3N 83.7W 50 KT 36HR VT 24/0600Z 16.7N 85.3W 60 KT 48HR VT 24/1800Z 17.2N 86.9W 75 KT 72HR VT 25/1800Z 18.2N 89.7W 45 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 26/1800Z 20.0N 91.5W 30 KT...OVER WATER 120HR VT 27/1800Z 22.0N 92.5W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BLAKE |
