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| #384748 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:46 PM 22.Oct.2010) TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM RICHARD ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010 1100 PM EDT FRI OCT 22 2010 ...RICHARD MOVING WESTWARD AND REMAINS SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.8N 82.4W ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM NE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON WESTWARD TO THE HONDURAS/ GUATEMALA BORDER. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * HONDURAS FROM THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER WESTWARD TO LIMON AND THE BAY ISLANDS * EAST COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA TO CHETUMAL A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * HONDURAS FROM THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER WESTWARD TO THE HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER...AND THE BAY ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BELIZE A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF RICHARD. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RICHARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.4 WEST. RICHARD IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A WESTWARD TO WEST- NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...RICHARD SHOULD APPROACH NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS ON SATURDAY...AND COULD APPROACH THE COASTS OF BELIZE AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO LATE ON SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND RICHARD IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE OVER THE WEEKEND. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS AND IN THE BAY ISLANDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. RAINFALL...RICHARD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER NORTHERN HONDURAS AND THE BAY ISLANDS WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS AROUND 7 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS WITHIN THE WARNING AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THAT AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTS OF BELIZE AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO BY LATE SUNDAY. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN/KIMBERLAIN |
